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US, Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia-What is Going On?

By Josef Olmert

It is arguably the case that there is never a dull moment in the Middle East, and this time it is all about the Biden Administration and its flurry of activity in the region. Donald Trump called Biden ‘’Sleepy Joe’’, but he could not be farther from the truth when it comes to the Middle East. A lot is happening, some of it in public with complete transparency, some of it behind closed doors. The common denominator is that the new Administration focuses its foreign policy on human rights in the Middle East and other regions of the world. Three countries are in the limelight. The first is Saudi Arabia and the aftershocks of the Khashoggi case. Then there is Egypt, where the Al Sisi regime deals with the Jihadist Muslim Brotherhood movement with an iron fist. The third is Turkey, as the Administration finally recognized the Armenian genocide as such. President Erdogan is going crazy, with threats that he may remove Turkey from the NATO Alliance. 

Here is the first observation to be made about the Biden approach-these three countries are American allies, not enemies. (Turkey at least is a formal ally). The question is raised about the bottom line-is there a strategy behind all that, or is it just an exercise in domestic politics to get them to support the Administration’s domestic agenda? 

This is a legitimate question, but the answer is to be found somewhere else: Iran.

Let us start with the question of human rights. The yearly report of the State Department bases itself explicitly, when it deals with Israel, on the fallacious, propagandist reports of anti-Israel organizations like B’tzelem. However, when dealing with Iran, the opposition in the country is ignored, and descriptions of human rights violations are omitted, as only official reports are being quoted. A coincidence? Not really, as what we see is a concerted effort to believe the Iranian government when it comes to the burning issue of the Iran nuclear deal.

Let us be honest here-whether people like or dislike the new Administration is irrelevant. The truth is that Biden made clear ahead of the November 2020 elections that it is his goal to reinstate the deal. Talking about transparency, then here it is. Biden also kept his promise to inform Israel in advance about American moves, rather than confronting her with fait accompli, as was the case under the Obama Administration. So far, so good? Not really. Yes, the Administration consults with Israel and has hosted a high-level Israeli delegation in D.C., but preceded the meetings with a specific statement that Israeli objections will not change American position. He also ended the talks with a clear message that no policy change is likely to occur in Washington. The policy is very clear-the U.S. wants to renew the deal with Iran. The Administration is obsessed with the idea that they have to restore the agreement.

Meanwhile, the Iranians, the weaker side in these talks, are the ones who play the role of the tough guys and are insisting on a complete American capitulation. That means an abrogation of the entire volume of American sanctions on Iran and avoiding dealing with the questions related to the subversive regional activities of the Iranians and their ballistic missile programs. There are strong hints that the Biden team will accept all this. On the other hand, the Iranians are waiting to see what happens in their presidential elections in June before they agree to reestablish the deal.

Here is a critical lesson about how NOT to conduct diplomacy in the Middle East. It is crucial not to show eagerness to sign a deal. Westerners are much more impatient than Middle Easterners [not Israel…]. No one can compete with the Iranians when it comes to this kind of negotiation. The truth is that the Biden team knows all that –they do not need us to tell them about the Iranian negotiations’ tactics. Rob Malley, the head of the American team, is an old hand. The problem is that he is anti-Israel, he is an appeaser, and he has his boss’s backing. In the background, you have the Obama circle, the former CIA director John Brenan, John Kerry who informed the Iranians about Israeli operations in Syria [if we are to believe the tape of Zarif, the Iranian FM then and now, and why will we not believe him?], and Valerie Jarett, the secret pro-Iran voice in the Obama Administration. Then there is the political circle of Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, Rep Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, and others. The Progressives push towards a change of policy in the Middle East and use the Iran question, less so the Palestinian issue, as their main battle cry.

This is a challenge to Israel and Saudi Arabia, and here is a point to be emphasized, Saudi Arabia has put on hold the much-anticipated formal normalization with Israel, something that, if it happened, would have an explosive effect on the region at large. Moreover, Saudi-Iranian talks between senior intelligence officials in Baghdad under the auspices of the Iraqi PM. More importantly, the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman is changing his tone. In the past, this is the man who led the Holy propaganda war against the Iranians, the man who argued that the Supreme Leader Khamenei is worse than Hitler. I suspect the change is a change of approach. His overall image is in the shadow of the Khashoggi affair and the implicit American threat that he could still be implicated personally. But there is a much bigger reason here. For decades, Israeli diplomats and scholars used the mantra and scholars dealing with their American counterparts who claimed that Saudi Arabia is a weak country, which needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs Saudi Arabia.  Therefore, the argument went, there is no need to toe the Saudi line. Successive American presidents, including great friends of Israel, like Reagan and G.W. Bush, were not convinced because there was always the intoxicating smell of the Black Gold in the air, the Saudi oil. Since the meeting between FDR and King Ibn Saud on 14 February 1945, this was always the issue in American-Saudi relations. But no more.  Dependence on Saudi oil is not what it was, but American politics and especially the Democratic Party are not what they used to be.

Somebody in Riyadh seems to understand it, and this is the Crown Prince. No,  he has not changed one bit of his fundamental convictions about Iran regardless of tone change, but he is afraid of the Biden team. He knows how weak and vulnerable Saudi Arabia is, and here is the choice he is presented with-oppose American policy about Iran alongside Israel. We, the Biden team, will go after you and your regime. It may be a bluff choice but then convince the Crown Prince about that. Between Israel and the U.S., the Prince will choose the U.S. The Biden Administration is scoring here a giant victory-they separate Saudi Arabia from Israel. They isolate Israel from Iran, and, in simple terms, they push Israel towards its own crucial decisions. 

All this happens at the most inconvenient time for Israel-while it is in the midst of an ongoing government crisis, and when its current PM, Netanyahu, who is so associated with the most vigorous anti-Iran deal policy, is on his way out. So, the Biden team politely reports Netanyahu and consults with him, but leaves him with the idea that if he is earnest about stopping the Iran stampede towards the bomb, he is left with no allies it. Not a simple decision to be made by any Israeli Prime Minister.

Dr. Josef Olmert is a Senior Fellow at the Palm Beach Center for Democracy and Policy Research and an adjunct professor of Political Science at the University of South Carolina