ISRAELI POLITICS-CONFUSED?-HERE ARE THE ANSWERS

By Josef Olmert

Israel went three times to general elections in a period of eleven months and may go shortly to another one-crazy? Maybe, but still, a situation that can be explained and hopefully also be resolved.

Let us start with the obvious-the political system of every democratic country is expected to be a reflection of the composition of its society and the legacy of its history. So, here is Israel with a diverse population, a reflection of the circumstances leading to the establishment of the state as well as the implications of Jewish history. It requires that the Arab ethnic and religious minority should be represented. So is the case with the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish population. Add up to this the historic ideological divisions in the Zionist movement, and the inevitable outcome is the existence of 8-10 parties competing over representation in a Knesset comprised of 120 seats.  No one party has ever had the magic number of 61 seats, which enables the establishment of a government. Coalition governments are therefore the name of the game, and coalitions are, by definition, based on compromises. Compromises may be a nice word, but on many occasions, it is simply a laundered word substituting for the use of more pointed and less acceptable terms. Put in sum, this is politics and politics as we know, is the art of the possible, and yet when looking at Israel today the overall sense is one of dramatic success, perhaps the best example in the entire world of a state emerging amid formidable difficulties and yet achieving so much. That said, when a near political paralysis exists, something which was exemplified again with the results of the most recent elections of 2 March, then it is time for changes, though not revolutions.

These elections brought in a Knesset divided along these lines; Right Wing -both Religious and traditional Nationalist parties – 58 out of 120. Almost but not exactly the desired majority. Center Parties -The Blue and White Party led by Benny Gantz and Israel Beitenu Party led by Avigdor Lieberman 40 seats. The Left Wing-7 seats. The Arab Party – 15 seats. The breakdown among the voters is a fascinating mirror of Israeli society. The main party of the Right Wing and the single largest party after the elections, the Likud Party led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is the dominant party in what they call “Second Israel.”  That is, the Israel of the Jews from Arab and Muslim countries, altogether the people from the periphery in the North and South, poorer, mostly religious or traditionalists, and highly nationalistic when it comes to their positions on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. These are the Mizrachim, people from the Middle East countries. [Mizrach= East]. Likud itself, while being considered ‘’Conservative’’ and Right Wing, is split between the classic free-market economy approach of Netanyahu himself, and the strong populist, welfare state sentiment of most of its voters. State-run medical service for all was instituted in Israel by a Likud Government, something that many American Conservatives find hard to believe. Likud is also more Liberal on social issues than American Conservatives. The Likud Justice Minister is currently a Gay man, and he is enormously popular in the party. The other parties of the Netanyahu-led bloc are Shas, an ultra-Orthodox party representing Mizrachim, highly nationalist, and very religious, Yemani [Yamin-Right Wing], mostly Jews of European origin [Ashkenazim], Religious Zionist and extremely nationalist, and Torah Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox party of mostly Ashkenazi Jews.

The Center parties are also not made of one unified ideological color. Lieberman’s party is more hawkish than Likud dealing with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but being a party representing the mostly secular Olim [immigrants] from the former USSR, they take the anti-religious line, and on top of that, Lieberman and Netanyahu who used to work together, have become personal enemies. The Blue and White Party is a loose combination of three-four factions, with a divergence of opinions on the outstanding issues, including the Palestinian problem and state-religion issues. Some of their members are very hawkish, but dislike Netanyahu personally and left Likud over their issues with him.  Most of their votes came from upper middle class, the Hi-tech and business community, with Tel Aviv as their stronghold and Ashkenazim the bulk of their electorate. The Left Wing is composed of the Labor Party and Meretz, now comprising 7 seats, whereas in the first Knesset elections in 1949, they comprised 65 seats. Simply put, the Left Wing is in near-complete extinction in Israel. Left Wing, in this case, means dovish on the Palestinian issue, and Socialist economic policies. Most of their votes came from Ashkenazim.

Finally, it is the Arab Party that gets less than one of its seats from Jews, hence to define them as an ethnic party has nothing to do with racism and bigotry, simply stating a fact. A legitimate party, though esp- Wing Arabs [the Communists] and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood from the Right Wing.

The above description of the political map in Israel is a vivid testimony of the mosaic of the population of the state at large, whereby every significant constituent group in society is represented in the Knesset, but it also indicates the biggest problem of all-the difficulty of forming a government. However, despite major crises emanating from the thorny issue of religion and state, and the problems connected with the Palestinians, governments have always been formed. However, never before has the state encountered the current problem. It is a huge problem, when ONE person, a formidable political figure seems to be so dominant in the politics of the country, dominant for being credited with so many achievements, being so popular among half of the population, but also loathed by another half, either because of his legal issues or his personal style. This is Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving Israeli Prime Minister, more than the founding father, David Ben Gurion. It is a personal tragedy for Netanyahu regarding his legal issues, and not less so, his complicated family issues. However, personal issues of a leader, as revered as Netanyahu may be, are still dwarfed by the overall national considerations, which are simply more important. Netanyahu has become the problem, whether right or wrong, and consequently, a solution has to do with him and his political and personal future.

It is arguably the case that Israel should not be pushed into a fourth devastating round of elections, and a government has to be formed. It is also the case that a PM cannot serve under the shadow of three very serious indictments, especially when his trial is about to open. Israel needs a full-time PM, and Netanyahu cannot be such a PM if he is to defend himself in a trial. It is finally the case that political compromises are required on both sides of the aisle. Therefore, a compromise solution is presented here;

Netanyahu’s trial is to be put on hold for a year. In this year, he will serve as PM of a national unity government composed of Likud and Blue and White, which will equally divide between them the most important portfolios. Gantz will be number 2. Also, the other parties, including the Arab party, can join the government and receive minor portfolios once they agree on a common platform. It will definitely however lead the Arab party, the Left Wing, and Yamina party out of the coalition. Netanyahu will resign at the end of this year, will retire from political life, and stand for his trial. Hopefully, he will be acquitted of all charges. After one year, Israel will go for new elections with Likud under new leadership, with good people who can fill Netanyahu’s shoes. As we are told, only graveyards are full of people who have no replacements. That said, IF this compromise is not applicable, due to the refusal of Blue and White and Lieberman to accept Netanyahu even under these terms, then Netanyahu has to resign right now, and allow Likud to elect a new leader, who may be able to attract Lieberman and thus, still keep the Right Wing in power. MOST IMPORTANT of all, the next elections should become an actual referendum over the visions and specific proposals of both main political blocks regarding changes in the political system. Israel needs a government, and national interest should dictate a compromise.

Dr. Josef Olmert is a Senior Fellow at the Palm Beach Center for Democracy and Policy Research and an adjunct professor of Political Science at the University of South Carolina