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Biden’s Visit: What Really Happened?

By Josef Olmert

Yair Lapid, the new provisional Israeli PM stated after President Biden left Israel for Saudi Arabia, that ”it was such an important visit, the full results of it will be known in years to come”. This was a typical pre-election statement of an inexperienced politician, but it is in line with the overall attempt by the post-Netanyahu Israeli government to portray with flying colors the relations between Israel and the Democratic administration. It is an interest compatible with that of President Biden to show success to the American public at a time when he ranks low in the rating in an unprecedented way. So, let us refer to Lapid’s statement with a grain of salt, and analyze what was accomplished in Biden’s visit to Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia.

The current Israeli government set five goals for the visit. First, to give itself, and particularly PM Lapid, a seal of international respectability, an informal American vote of confidence to please Israelis ahead of the elections and, by so doing, help Lapid to win. Lapid can signal a big V here. Another goal was to mend fences with the Democratic Party, as relations were grossly damaged in the last years further aggravated during the Netanyahu government. 

Lapid believes that this goal was achieved. I disagree. Relations have been put back on a respectful and civilized track, but the Democratic Party has mixed feelings towards Israel. President Biden declared himself a Zionist and repeated it even during the visit to Israel, but a statement he made comparing the Palestinian experience to that of the Irish with Britain put this statement in a somewhat questionable perspective, to say the least. Indeed, Biden is a friend of Israel, always portraying himself as such. However, he represents a vanishing breed in the party and maybe the last pro-Israel Democratic president. Still, the visit uplifted the spirits of the pro-Israel camp in the party, and Lapid can signal a V, but he should be advised to do it moderately, considering the overall situation in the Democratic Party.

Third, Israel wanted to close ranks with the US about Iran. That goal was not achieved. The Jerusalem Declaration about Iran was a written version of what was said so many times before and proved insufficient from an Israeli point of view. If, it was not satisfactory before, it will not be such when put in writing either. The US objects to an independent Israeli military action and does not participate in Israel’s preparations for such an action. Lapid says there is no Israeli blank objection to any nuclear deal with Iran, thus giving the US the green light to work out a nuclear agreement with Iran. If there will be a better agreement remains to be seen. However, in fairness, how can it be a better agreement when Iran already crossed the threshold of 60% uranium enrichment and continues its stampede towards the 90% point? According to the well-reputed former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror, Israel will have to take military action in such case. The unknown about the Iran talks during the visit is what, if at all was discussed, including the activities conducted by Israel designed to undermine the Iranian regime. Hopefully, this was discussed and agreed upon, though American leaks made it clear that the US was not happy with some of the activities ascribed to the Mossad and the IDF. The talks preceding the meeting, about the creation of a regional anti-Iran defense alliance with Israel inside it, were not mentioned in any speech/statement. While it makes sense not to talk about it in public,

seems likely that this is an idea that, at this stage, can be categorized as a pie in the sky. No V to Lapid about Iran.

Fourth, there was a much talked-about expectation of a dramatic improvement in relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, starting with significant normalization steps. To start with, it was a tactical, maybe even a strategic mistake by both US and Israel to link the visit to this question. More of it will be discussed later, but the Saudis have reacted as the Saudis always do-acting with a small step, then trying to minimize its significance or even deny it. They

 already allowed flights to and from Israel over their airspace.  Now, they also allow Israeli flights. This is clearly an achievement, but something that was in the pipeline. The Saudis are now

 going out of their way to minimize its significance. NO V to either Lapid or Biden on this one.

That brings us to the fifth goal of the Lapid government-curtailing any undue American pressure regarding the Palestinians. Here we can register a success to Lapid-A V, though not an unqualified one. To start with, the Palestinians got three hours only, the visit defined as ”private”, and Biden’s speech in Bethlehem, though full of platitudes, was devoid of any meaningful political gifts to the Palestinians, save for one. This one gift is troubling and potentially dangerous. This is the 200 million US $ gift to UNRWA. Why is it bad? Simply, because of three important reasons. First, this is a UN agency known also to Biden and his team as an antisemitic propaganda machine in the service of the Palestinians.

Giving money to them under any pretense is no less than a crime against humanity. You do not fill the pockets of those who propagate unmitigated hatred against other people. Propaganda first, and actions later-and actions mean killing Jews! As sad as it is, the truth here needs to be stated loud and clear. Second, by artificially keeping UNRWA alive, the US is keeping the so-called ”refugee problem” alive and playing in the hands of the most radical Palestinians. And here is the third point; Biden and his team use this and other gestures such as not allowing any Israelis to accompany Biden in East Jerusalem as a concession to the anti-Israel Progressive Democrats. The more the Progressives put pressure on Biden, the more he will put pressure, in turn, on Israel. Abbas and his people are clearly disappointed with the visit, and they know why. They expected more this time, but we ought to remember something very important. Biden may be a weaker president after the November 2022 midterm elections on domestic issues, but not necessarily so in issues of foreign policy. In Israel, Netanyahu may return to the premiership, and pressures that were not applied on Lapid may very well be applied on Netanyahu. The distorted notion of “Human rights” may be used against Israel. 

If the Americans really believe in human rights, Biden should have refrained from visiting Saudi Arabia, but oil proved more important than expected. Biden was continually humiliated by the Saudis under MBS in the two days of the visit there-no King to greet him, no American

flags in Jeddah, and Saudi denials of statements made by him while he was there. Mainstream American media ignored all this, unaware of the not-so-subtle messages sent by MBS. This is another indication of a typical American misunderstanding of the Middle East and Arab culture- the failure to understand the importance of honor and respect. MBS turned the tables on Biden and gave him a short but poignant lesson in Arab culture. Biden sounded almost pathetic, some would say totally so, when he claimed that the visit was not about oil, that he blamed MBS in his face for the murder of Khashoggi, and that he got solid assurances from the Saudis.

In short, Biden presented the visit as a great success, but it was not. The Saudis may increase their oil output but on their pace. They will not change their systematic abuse of human rights, and the Saudis will not commit themselves to a dramatic change of relations with Israel, only because the US asked them. Making normalization with Israel an item on Biden’s agenda in Saudi Arabia was a major blunder [See also above], as it collided head-on with the Saudi notions of honor, and, even more importantly, their sense of their role in the Arab and Muslim world. MBS wanted Biden to come to his country as he expected to use the visit to get his rehabilitation from the Americans and remove the question of human rights from the agenda. He did not think he needed to give Biden a gift in the form of a major change with Israel, something that, IF done, would have pleased many Republicans and the still existing pro-Israel wing of the Democratic party. MBS will not, at any rate, move dramatically ahead with the relations with Israel without being sure that he has enough support in his country and in the Muslim world. However, he surely did not want to make the impression that he was succumbing to American pressure. Also, the Israelis talked too much about normalization with Saudi Arabia and this added to MBS’ frustration. 

Biden’s visit has just ended, and the implications of such a visit will be on display in the months and possibly years to come. Still, it is not too early to realize that one visit with all the fanfare and platitudes, speeches, gestures, and vague promises is not enough to give credibility to Biden’s statement that the US is back in force in the Middle East. In this case, consistency and actions will speak louder than words. The Jury is still out.

Dr. Josef Olmert is a Senior Fellow at the Palm Beach Center for Democracy and Policy Research and an adjunct professor of Political Science at the University of South Carolina