Author: Josef Olmert, Ph.D.

Abu Ali is a legendary Arab folk hero. He is the one that stands up for the weak and oppressed. Egypt’s former leader, Gamal abd al-Nasir, was also an Abu Ali, regardless of his repeated defeats and the calamities that he brought upon the Arabs. Yet this is so in a society that consecrates words at the expense of words, which blame others rather than itself. These days we have a new Abu Ali, in Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah.

Eight months after 7 October 2023, the well-known political science cliche about; “unintended consequences” of wars seems to be a reality so far as the impact of the war on Israel is. It is NOT Gaza which has become Israel’s main military problem; rather, it is the NORTH, the Israeli-Lebanese border. It is Hizballah, defined usually as a terror organization. Yes, they are, but they are much more than that.

What is officially known in Israel as the ”swords of iron” war is not yet close [written on 31 December] to its end. In fact, we may be close to the end of the beginning only, but it is not too early to come up with an interim assessment of what has unfolded since 7 October.

While Israel is dealing with its greatest, most dangerous ever internal crisis, it also has to ponder the pros and cons of a possible agreement with Saudi Arabia, whether as seems more likely a normalization agreement or even full peace treaty.

For nearly six months, Israel has been gripped in an internal crisis described by many as the most severe challenge to its very viability as a democratic state. Israel experienced significant crises, such as the Altalena crisis in June 1948, only weeks after the establishment of the state, the reparations from Germany crisis in 1952, the turbulent period after the Oslo Accords climaxed with the assassination of PM Rabin in 1995, and the Disengagement from Gaza in 2005.