Author: Josef Olmert, Ph.D.

The fall of the Assad regime, which was the downfall of a political ideology- Ba’athism, and a minority community -the Alawis, can be somewhat connected to the overall fallout from the events of 7 October and their aftermath. Indeed, the timing of the events in Syria was greatly influenced by the smashing [though not final] defeat inflicted by Israel on Hizballah directly and indirectly on Iran. The Sunni opposition in Syria timed its final assault on the regime, which was in the making for many months, to the weakness of Iran, whose support to the Assad regime was crucial.

Israel needs to come out of the war with Hizballah as the undisputed winner, and that should be in total contrast to the impressions created after the 2006 war. It has to be the LAST war with Lebanon, or with factions inside Lebanon. The idea, therefore, is to lead to that result, which, IF achieved, will be THE victory for Israel as well as for Lebanon.

Sun Tzu-’’All warfare is based on deception’’

Clausewitz-’’In war, more than anywhere else, things do not turn out as we expect’’

These famous sayings by two of the world’s most influential military thinkers seem to reflect the course of the THIRD ISRAEL-LEBANON WAR waged since 8 October 2023 when Hizballah started its unprovoked attacks against Israel, in support, as they have claimed ever since, of the Hamas war against Israel.

Abu Ali is a legendary Arab folk hero. He is the one that stands up for the weak and oppressed. Egypt’s former leader, Gamal abd al-Nasir, was also an Abu Ali, regardless of his repeated defeats and the calamities that he brought upon the Arabs. Yet this is so in a society that consecrates words at the expense of words, which blame others rather than itself. These days we have a new Abu Ali, in Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah.

Eight months after 7 October 2023, the well-known political science cliche about; “unintended consequences” of wars seems to be a reality so far as the impact of the war on Israel is. It is NOT Gaza which has become Israel’s main military problem; rather, it is the NORTH, the Israeli-Lebanese border. It is Hizballah, defined usually as a terror organization. Yes, they are, but they are much more than that.