Author: Josef Olmert, Ph.D.

Sun Tzu-’’All warfare is based on deception’’

Clausewitz-’’In war, more than anywhere else, things do not turn out as we expect’’

These famous sayings by two of the world’s most influential military thinkers seem to reflect the course of the THIRD ISRAEL-LEBANON WAR waged since 8 October 2023 when Hizballah started its unprovoked attacks against Israel, in support, as they have claimed ever since, of the Hamas war against Israel.

Abu Ali is a legendary Arab folk hero. He is the one that stands up for the weak and oppressed. Egypt’s former leader, Gamal abd al-Nasir, was also an Abu Ali, regardless of his repeated defeats and the calamities that he brought upon the Arabs. Yet this is so in a society that consecrates words at the expense of words, which blame others rather than itself. These days we have a new Abu Ali, in Hezbollah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah.

Eight months after 7 October 2023, the well-known political science cliche about; “unintended consequences” of wars seems to be a reality so far as the impact of the war on Israel is. It is NOT Gaza which has become Israel’s main military problem; rather, it is the NORTH, the Israeli-Lebanese border. It is Hizballah, defined usually as a terror organization. Yes, they are, but they are much more than that.

What is officially known in Israel as the ”swords of iron” war is not yet close [written on 31 December] to its end. In fact, we may be close to the end of the beginning only, but it is not too early to come up with an interim assessment of what has unfolded since 7 October.