Trump’s Decision to Pull US Troops from NE Syria a Brilliant Geostrategic Move

Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay:

IThe decision to pull US troops out of NE Syria is a very fluid one. By the time this commentary is read, the events in NE Syria may have turned course. However, regardless of how this scenario unfolds, the basic premise remains the same. Trump’s decision to pull US troops from NE Syria is not only good foreign policy, but, as evidenced by recent events, it is a brilliant geostrategic move that has positive long-term implications for US foreign policy in the region.

The decision to pull US troops out of NE Syria is a very fluid one.  By the time this commentary is read, the events in NE Syria may have turned course.  However, regardless of how this scenario unfolds, the basic premise remains the same.  Trump’s decision to pull US troops from NE Syria is not only good foreign policy, but, as evidenced by recent events, it is a brilliant geostrategic move that has positive long-term implications for US foreign policy in the region.

The possibility of a return of ISIS as an independent, viable force in NE Syria grossly exaggerated

The assumption that Trump’s troop pull-out decision will create an opening for the Islamic State just as Obama’s troop pull-out decision did in Iraq is exaggerated.  Simply put, there are a multitude of actors in the NE Syria theatre which do not provide sufficient space in order to ISIS to return. The NE Syria theatre (Turkey border – M4 Highway – Euphrates River – Iraqi border) is approximately 4,113 square miles, with the intense fighting taking place in approximately half of this area.  To put it in perspective, the Turkey-Syrian border conflict area is about half the size of Connecticut. The actors presently engaged in and around this theatre include, to one degree or another, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), SDF’s Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), SDF’s Women’s Protection Units (YPJ), the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Syrian Army, Turkish Armed Forces, and now the Russian military police.  Unless the remnants of ISIS align themselves with the Turkish-backed militia in NE Syria there is no space for the reemergence of an independent-ISIS in this arena.  This, along with the fact that ISIS lacks financial donors and their own land to fight for, the threat of a reemerged ISIS is negligible, at best.

Further, had the US been engaged in defensive operations with the SDF, this would have put US forces in direct opposition to Russian, Turkish and Syrian interests in the region, all countries that Trump publicly thanked for their support in the US operation that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

Trump is not causing a problem; he is fixed a problem that others created

Obama’s timed and preannounced decision to pull US troops out of Iraq made the creation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant possible, but this policy debacle only tells half the story.  Documents disclosed thanks to Judicial Watch’s appeal to the Freedom of Information Act reveal that the Obama Administration not only knew in advance that ISIS planned for a caliphate, but also that US arms were being shipped, via Benghazi, to terrorist groups opposed to al-Assad in Syria.  Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA; then led by Michael Flynn) documents reveal that the weapons shipped to Syria via Benghazi included 500 sniper rifles, 100 RPG launchers with 300 total rounds, and approximately 400 howitzer missiles (200 each 125mm, 155mm). According to the DIA, the events in Syria were “taking a clear sectarian direction.  The Salafist, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) are the major forces driving the insurgency in Syria. The West, Gulf countries, and Turkey support the opposition; while Russia, China, and Iran support the Assad regime.” Further, “AQI is familiar with Syria. AQI trained in Syria…AQI supported the Syrian opposition from the beginning.  AQI, through the spokesman of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)…is calling…to wage war against the Syrian Regime.” Remarkably, “The future assumptions of the crisis: The (al Assad) Regime will survive and have control over Syrian territory.”

In short, despite being advised by the DIA that al-Assad will survive, the Obama Administration, the State Department and others planned to spend millions of US taxpayer money to try to remove al-Assad by directly working with al-Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other radical Islamist terrorist groups.  In the end, hundreds of thousands of Syrians died, over 6 million were displaced, and al-Assad is still in office today. In short, by pulling US troops out of NE Syria, Trump is not creating a problem; rather, he is fixing a problem that the Obama Administration helped create.

The Trump policy opens the door to Long-Term Solutions that would otherwise not be available

As Dr. Olmert notes that in Dec 2015, the Syrian Democratic Council was established, and its stated goal was the creations of a “secular, democratic and decentralized system for all of Syria.”  According to Olmert, this statement is significant in that it calls for Kurdish autonomy and self-rule, not outright independence. Ironically, Turkey’s incursion into NE Syria fosters the Kurdish push for semi-autonomous rule by forcing the SDF and al-Assad into an alliance in order to deal with the Turkish threat.  Ultimately, this means that al-Assad needs to be a part of the equation, and this would be near-impossible with US troop presence in the NE Syrian theatre. If the Kurds make a deal with al-Assad for a semi-autonomous region, then this would be the closest they have had to having their own land.

In fact, the Turkish incursion has accelerated the Syrian-Kurdish dialogue.  Under the Oct 13 SDF-Syrian Protection Deal, the Syrian Army will be deployed along the Turkey-Syrian border in 15 observation posts in territory formerly held by the SDF to enforce Syrian territorial integrity.  In the political sphere of this arrangement, it is expected that the Kurds will seek to get Syrian recognition of their self-proclaimed autonomous administration.

From a more macro-perspective, Trump also sends a signal to the anti-Iranian coalition in the Middle East, notably Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Israel, that it is their responsibility to confront the Iranian threat.  Just like the US troop pull-out in NE Syria has forced the Kurds and Syria dialogue, however tepid, the same could also be said for how it forces the hand of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Israel.  This development, if actualized, would have long-term positive implications for US foreign policy in the region, but it can only be realized with the reduction of US troops in the region.

Trump does recognize the importance of the Omar Oil Fields

Contrary to popular opinion, Trump does recognize the value of the Omar Oil Fields on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River in SE Syria.  On Oct 21, US Def Secretary Marc Esper told reporters that the Administration will ensure that the oil fields will not fall into the hands of ISIS or other militant groups.  To this end, approximately 200 US troops will remain in the oil field area, with another 400+ US private military contractors. Some reports indicate that some of the troops from NE Syria are being repositioned SE Syria.  This personnel, backed-up by air support, is more than enough to secure this area. Trump has even hinted at using US energy companies to help develop these fields for Kurdish gain. On Oct 23, Trump and Mazloum Abdi, SDF General Commander, tweeted each other with complements; surely the security of the Omar Oil Fields would have been discussed in their communications.

Trump’s Syrian Policy is also very consistent with campaign promises

Here is then-Candidate Trump on his vision for American’s foreign policy, Washington, DC, Apr 27, 2016:

“I will never send our finest into battle unless necessary, and I mean absolutely necessary, and will only do so if we have a plan for victory with a capital V.  The world must know that we do not go abroad in search of enemies…It’s time to shake the rust off of America’s foreign policy… It’s time to invite new voices and new visions into the fold.”

Dr. William Wilson has instructed over 300 online college courses in the fields of Government and International Relations at multiple universities.  He resides in West Palm Beach, FL, and can be reached at wswfl@live.com